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Global Innovation Quality Statistics & Peak Innovation

Innovation Quality

If patents represent the best innovation, and if the majority of issued patents are invalid for not being innovative (i.e., not novel, obvious, not reproducible), then it could be that the majority of the world's "innovation" is a waste of time and money, a waste of tens of billions of dollars a year. And if it is harder to truly innovate, it could be that we have reached "Peak Innovation", making innovation less of a salvation for addressing the world's problems. See also our Timeline of Innovation Firsts.

Diminishing rates of innovation can lead to diminishing corporate profits, which play a significant role in a company's stock price. We are incorporating patent and innovation statistics into calculations of stock market recommendations for companies with significant patent portfolios.

Statistics on Global Innovation Quality

For the most part, there are few to any numerical measurements of the quality of technical innovation around the world, quality being defined here mostly as satisfying the tests for patentability: that the innovation is new, that it is not obvious, and that the innovation is well described. For the time being then, we use the quality of patents at the corporate, academic and national levels as a measure of the corresponding quality of innovation. More thinking about this can be seen in the following papers.

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Studies on Peak Innovation

All fields of engineering, technology and innovation eventually mature, with new fields to be born from new science. But as science itself matures, will there be fewer innovation opportunities? Have we, are we, will we soon be reaching "peak" innovation ("peak" inspired by King Hubbert's Peak Oil theory)? Beyond the studies below, our Timetable of Innovation Firsts provides a way to measure the economic impact of new innovations compared to the aggregrate value of existing innovations, which has or will peak. And sadly and ominously, how much of this remaining innovation is solely job-destroying?

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